Klimaændringer kan gøre det dyrere at låne penge for stater og byer

En dag snart, analytikere vil fastslå, at en by eller et amt, eller måske et skoledistrikt eller et forsyningsselskab, er så sårbar over for havstigninger, oversvømmelse, tørke eller naturbrand, at det er en investeringsrisiko.

At være sikker, intet samfund har endnu set sin kreditvurdering nedgraderet på grund af klimaprognoser. Og ingen har hørt om en regering, der kæmper for at få adgang til kapital på grund af dens usikre geografiske placering.

Men efterhånden som vurderingsfirmaer begynder at fokusere på klimaændringer, og investorer taler i stigende grad om problemet, De involverede i markedet siger, at nu er tiden inde til, at lokalsamfund foretager seriøse investeringer i klimaresiliens - eller risikerer at blive straffet af den finansielle sektor i fremtiden.

"Vi ser ikke kun på sårbarheden hos statslige og lokale myndigheder, men deres evne til at styre påvirkningen, " sagde Emily Raimes, vicepræsident hos Moody's Public Finance Group. "Mens vi vil se på data om stigende havniveauer, og hvem der kan være mere sårbare, vi vil også se på, hvad disse regeringer gør for at afbøde virkningen."

Moody's har været særligt højtråbende om sine bekymringer om klimaændringer. Firmaet har udgivet adskillige papirer, der vurderer klimarisikoen, og for to måneder siden købte det en majoritetsandel i Four Twenty Seven, et klimarisikodatafirma.

Emilie Mazzacurati, Four Twenty Sevens grundlægger og administrerende direktør, sagde, at obligationssektorens opmærksomhed på spørgsmålet burde få lokalregeringerne til at prioritere det. "Det skaber et incitament for dem til at være bedre forberedt, fordi det kommer til at koste dem penge, hvis de ikke gør det."

Men nogle bekymrer sig om, at straffen på steder for deres modtagelighed over for klimaændringer blot vil gøre det sværere for dem at finansiere de infrastrukturforbedringer, der kan beskytte dem.

"Ingen er endnu blevet straffet for at have en dårlig miljøpolitik eller praksis eller system, sagde Tim Schäfer, Californiens vicekasserer for offentlige finanser. "Jeg ved ikke, hvor meget længere det kommer til at vare. Jeg går ud fra, at der ikke er meget længere."

Regeringer, store og små, er afhængige af det kommunale obligationsmarked på 3,8 billioner dollars til meget af deres infrastrukturarbejde. Når embedsmænd ønsker at bygge en motorvej eller en skole – eller en strandvold eller et nødoperationscenter – udsteder de ofte obligationer, indbringer de nødvendige penge til at gennemføre projektet. Investorer tilbagebetales med renter over en periode, der kan løbe i årtier eller mere.

Omkring to tredjedele af infrastrukturprojekter i USA betales af kommunale obligationer, og mere end 50, 000 stater, lokale myndigheder og andre myndigheder har udstedt obligationer for at finansiere deres arbejde.

Regeringer betaler højere renter på disse obligationer, når deres kreditvurderinger er lave. Firmaer som Moody's Investors Service og Standard &Poor's Financial Services udsteder vurderingerne.

"Investorer er i en position, hvor de kræver et højere afkast, når de ser større risiko, sagde Kurt Forsgren, administrerende direktør for S&P Global Ratings.

Kommunale obligationer betragtes som en konservativ investering, med en nuværende misligholdelsesrate på omkring 0,3 %, ifølge Matt Fabian, en partner hos Kommunal Markedsanalyse. Til dato, obligationsmarkedet har ikke gjort meget for at afspejle, at risikoen kan være stigende.

"Der er næsten ingen indvirkning på muni-obligationspriserne med hensyn til sårbarheder i klimaændringer. Priserne anerkender ikke risikoen ved klimaændringer, " sagde han. "De fleste investorer tror, ​​at (klimaændringer) vil begynde at påvirke markedet lige efter deres egne obligationer udløber."

Efterhånden som flere investorer og virksomheder studerer risiciene, imidlertid, det kan ændre sig.

"Vi er omkring et år væk fra, at klimaændringerne begynder at påvirke muni-markedet - lidt, " sagde Fabian. "Ændringer på investorsiden vil ske først, (kredit)vurderinger kommer i anden række, og udstederens adfærd vil være en fjern tredjedel."

Nogle investorer er allerede begyndt at inddrage klimaændringer i deres beslutninger. Erik Glas, en porteføljemanager hos AllianceBernstein, sagde, at hans portefølje valgte at undgå en seneste tre-årtiers obligation i Florida Keys, som står over for stigende vandstand.

"Hvordan ser (Florida Keys) ud om 30 år?" sagde Glas. "Jeg ved det ikke. Men jeg ved, at det ikke kommer til at se ud, som det ser ud i dag. Det er en svær beregning at lave, og vi har besluttet ikke at tage den."

David Jacobson, vice president of communications for Moody's Public Finance Group, called a downgrade over climate projections a "what-if type of thing." Moody's ratings are based on what its analysts expect a government's creditworthiness to be in the next 12 to 24 months, han sagde, even though the bonds they issue can run for decades.

"The things that are happening right now or in the next 24 months weigh a whole lot more than things we think will happen in 15 to 20 years, " said Lenny Jones, a managing director at Moody's. "We're not scientists."

Credit-rating firms have always acted conservatively, said Justin Marlowe, a professor at the University of Washington who studies public finance. To some critics, that reluctance to downgrade pre-emptively is leaving the market unprepared for the onslaught of climate effects that so many local governments will face.

That's the conundrum facing the municipal bond market right now:If the market fails to be proactive about future risks, it could lead to billions in ill-fated investments in communities at the forefront of climate change. But making it more expensive for governments with environmental liabilities to borrow money could prevent them from making the improvements needed to strengthen their infrastructure.

And just because a city is likely to be struck by sea level rise or wildfire doesn't necessarily mean it will default on its bonds. Further effects like crop yields and population shifts—and their impact on a tax base—could prove even harder to project.

"It's a pretty big step from 'we have economic impacts' to 'this is going to affect their long-term ability to repay their bonds.' There's a really big difference, " Mazzacurati said. "(Ratings firms') focus is really about counties who repay their debt. Det er det. There can be really important impacts that are not going to be reflected in the bond rating, and that doesn't mean the bond rating is off."

Indtil nu, the few climate-related credit downgrades have come after specific disasters. New Orleans and Port Arthur, Texas, experienced credit downgrades after major hurricanes. And after a fire nearly destroyed Paradise, Californien, sidste år, the pool of pension obligation bonds it was a member of saw its credit downgraded.

As New Orleans rebounded, its credit improved. The city adopted a resilience strategy, bolstered its levee system and pursued other projects, such as turning green space into water reservoirs during periods of flooding. I dag, the city sees its biggest climate threat as extreme rainfall, which has increased in frequency in recent years and flooded parts of the city.

Leaders in New Orleans are asking voters to approve $500 million in new bonds, which would pay for infrastructure improvements such as the replacement of outdated pipes, as well as other goals like affordable housing. City officials say it shows New Orleans is "doubling down" on its infrastructure program.

"The environment is changing. More water's coming down in a shorter period, and we have to respond to that, " said Norman White, the city's chief financial officer. "Our first responsibility is to the citizens of New Orleans. Fortunately, that lines up with investors."

Coastal cities across the country are building seawalls to stave off rising oceans. Others are elevating roadways to prepare for more frequent flooding. Some are requiring sturdier new construction and retrofitting existing buildings to withstand severe weather events. Communities in drought-prone areas may focus on projects such as water storage, while those with flooding concerns must fortify their sewage infrastructure.

Sidste år, Moody's surveyed the 50 largest U.S. cities; 28 responded. Blandt dem, they had 240 climate resilience projects, totaling $47 billion. Some 60% of the projects were to combat flooding.

Florida's Miami-Dade County has been praised by analysts for its infrastructure investments focused on climate preparedness. Ed Marquez, the county's deputy mayor, said future financing is a "concern, " but officials are trying to address that with capital plans focused on dealing with the changing climate.

"This is a many-year process as we fix our infrastructure, as we add new infrastructure, as new science comes on board, " he said. "Miami is still growing. People are still coming. Investors are buying our bonds. We're telling them what the odds are, but it's odds that they're willing to play."

landsdækkende, Florida remains in good shape creditwise, despite the challenges many of its communities are facing. Ben Watkins, the state's director of bond finance, said that's likely to continue, even amid hurricanes and rising sea levels. Even the most devastating hurricane seasons have ended up being a "blip on the radar" in terms of Florida's credit health, han sagde. But concern remains for smaller governments within the state.

"People are dying to come to Florida and coming to Florida to die, " he said. "Until that changes, we'll have the economic engines to be able to access credit."

Cities with climate change risks should follow Florida's lead and borrow now for local projects, said Fabian, the analytics researcher.

"As investors get smarter about climate change risk, it will become more expensive for governments with the largest need to borrow, " Fabian said. "Their costs to borrow could certainly be higher. Acting earlier is almost always cheaper."

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