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Da Californien vedtog sin skelsættende cap-and-trade-lov i 2006, Tilhængere var håbefulde, at programmet ville give skabelonen for andre stater - og i sidste ende den føderale regering - til at løse klimakrisen.
Nu, mange miljøgrupper siger i stigende grad, at programmet ikke har gjort meget for at bremse klimaændringerne. Værre, de siger, det skader de lavindkomstområder og farvesamfund, der er hårdest ramt af forurening.
Disse bekymringer om miljøretfærdighed forhindrede nyvalgte præsident Joe Biden i at vælge Mary Nichols, der leder California Air Resources Board - agenturet, der fører tilsyn med programmet - til at lede Environmental Protection Agency. Og andre stater, fra Pennsylvania til Washington, overvejer nu, hvordan de kan skabe lignende programmer.
"Ti år siden, cap-and-trade var omdrejningspunktet i den føderale klimalovgivning, og en stor del af miljøsamfundet bakkede virkelig op om det, " sagde Michelle Chan, vicepræsident for programmer hos Friends of the Earth, en national miljøvenlig nonprofit.
"Spol frem til i dag, " hun sagde, og "miljøsamfundet har lært et par store lektioner, og cap-and-trade er blevet et mindre attraktivt politisk værktøj i det sidste årti."
Mens miljøretlige grupper har ledet ramaskrig over cap-and-trade, andre kendte organisationer i miljøbevægelsen er delte i spørgsmålet. Sierra Club modsatte sig 2017-udvidelsen af Californiens cap-and-trade-program, sagde, at det ikke ville gøre nok for at begrænse forureningen. En talsmand for Sierra Club reagerede ikke på en anmodning om kommentar.
Andre grupper, herunder California League of Conservation Voters, Natural Resources Defense Council og Environmental Defense Fund, kaldte lovforslaget et "hårdt tilkæmpet kompromis" i en pressemeddelelse og sagde, "fordelene i pakken opvejer indrømmelserne til industrien."
Cap-and-trade-programmer fungerer ved at sætte en grænse for mængden af kuldioxid, der kan udledes hvert år. Over tid, den grænse reduceres. Virksomheder skal derefter købe kreditter, der giver dem mulighed for at producere visse mængder kulstof. Virksomheder, der overstiger disse beløb, kan handle for kreditter med dem, der har ekstra. Staten bruger pengene, der genereres fra disse kreditauktioner, til at finansiere projekter for yderligere at reducere emissioner. Forurenere kan også købe modregninger, finansiering til beskyttelse af skove, som kan erstatte nogle emissionsreduktioner.
Mange Californiske ledere kalder stadig programmet for en national model og et eksempel på modigt klimalederskab. Men tidligere på måneden, mere end 70 miljøgrupper skrev til Biden og sagde, at Nichols havde ignoreret miljømæssige uretfærdigheder skabt af programmet. Det brev satte cap-and-trade i tråden.
"Under cap-and-trade, store forurenere køber kreditter i stedet for at reducere emissionerne, " sagde Jim Walsh, en analytiker hos fortalergruppen Food and Water Watch, som var blandt de grupper, der underskrev brevet.
"Disse store forurenere har en tendens til at være placeret i nærheden af lavindkomstsamfund og farvede samfund, " sagde han. "Vi har set emissioner stige i [disse] samfund på grund af cap-and-trade programmer."
Washingtons guvernør Jay Inslee, en demokrat, overvejede disse spørgsmål, da han for nylig foreslog et cap-and-trade-program for statens største forurenere, herunder brændstof- og naturgasleverandører, elproducenter og importører. Mens strukturen af programmet ligner Californiens, nogle ledere i Washington mener, at det er mere skræddersyet til at løse problemer med miljøretfærdighed.
En af justeringerne ville tillade regulatorer at standse salget af CO2-kreditter, hvis prisen falder for lavt, forhindre virksomheder i billigt at hamstre forureningskvoter, sagde Lauren McCloy, Inslee's senior energipolitiske rådgiver. En anden mekanisme ville gøre det muligt for staten at gribe ind, hvis kulstofpriserne alene ikke nedbringer forureningen i visse samfund.
"Hvis [Washington State Department of Ecology] ser, at en enhed ikke reducerer emissionerne eller øger emissionerne, især i et samfund, der er blevet stærkt påvirket af sundhedsforskelle, de ville være i stand til at pålægge et enhedsspecifikt emissionsloft, " sagde McCloy.
Selvom detaljerne endnu ikke er endelige, McCloy sagde, at lovforslaget sandsynligvis ville give virksomheder mulighed for at købe kulstofkompensation i stedet for nogle emissionsreduktioner. Hver investering, der foretages af programmets indtægter, skal gennemgå en analyse af dens indvirkning på lavindkomstsamfund og farvede mennesker.
Men mange er stadig uoverbeviste om, at selv et velstruktureret cap-and-trade-program kan være retfærdigt.
"I sidste ende, vi vil bare se [emissions]reduktionerne, vi ønsker, at vores folk skal se forskellen på stedet i deres nabolag, " sagde Jill Mangaliman, administrerende direktør for Got Green, en Seattle-baseret miljøretfærdighedsgruppe.
"[Staten] har magten med lovgivningsmæssige tiltag til at gå lige til hjertet af det i stedet for at skabe disse smuthuller, " sagde hun. "Kredit og modregning er ikke reelle reduktioner. De er en måde for forurenere at købe sig ud af deres ansvar."
Mange modstandere af cap-and-trade vil i stedet gerne se strenge emissionsgrænser og stærk håndhævelse, regulering af kulstof som andre forurenende stoffer i stedet for at skabe omfattende markeder for at tilskynde til gradvise reduktioner. De opfordrer også til at afbryde udviklingen af fossile brændstoffer, som bidrager til globale kulstofemissioner, som USA ikke kan regulere.
"Vi har altid været for direkte reduktioner og regulering, sagde Ingrid Brostrom, assisterende direktør i Center for Race, Fattigdom og miljø, en Californisk-baseret nonprofit for miljøretfærdighed. "Det vil være den bedste løsning for miljøretfærdighedssamfund."
Mens Californien har haft succes med at reducere sine emissioner, kritikere siger, at staten har været for venlig over for forurenere, og at hovedparten af fremskridtene er kommet fra en recession, strenge autoforureningsstandarder og et krav om, at strømudbydere producerer mere ren energi.
"Californiens cap-and-trade-program er en advarselshistorie, " sagde Brostrom. "Begrebet handel med forurening vil altid have en tendens til at forankre forureningskilder, hvor de er, og det vil være i lavindkomstsamfund og farvede samfund."
Selv med et mere aggressivt cap-and-trade-program, many critics think the credit-trading and offsets built into the policy create a "pay-to-pollute" incentive. A large oil company can buy extra carbon credits from others and invest in a forest conservation project in New York, rather than reducing toxic pollution at a refinery in a marginalized California community. While cap-and-trade has helped reduce emissions to some degree, the benefits have not been equally shared, and some who live near the state's worst polluters have seen their air quality worsen.
"We warned policymakers that the way cap-and-trade was being packaged is racist, " said Chan, who signed the letter opposing Nichols' appointment.
"Policymakers at the time said climate change is too important for us to let the disproportionate impacts that will occur in black and brown communities hold us back."
Tre år siden, California lawmakers passed a 10-year extension to the cap-and-trade program. Assembly member Cristina Garcia, then the chair of the Natural Resources Committee, helped move the bill through her chamber, while state Sen. Bob Wieckowski, who led the Environmental Quality Committee, did the same in the Senate. Both Democrats had proposed revisions to the program, but when those failed, they felt pressure to pass the bill, a major priority of then-Gov. Jerry Brown, also a Democrat.
"If I had the courage, I wish I would have put the brakes on that bill, " Wieckowski said. "It hasn't done anything [to reduce emissions]. If we're supposed to reduce our emissions 40% [by 2030] with the cap-and-trade program, we're not gonna get there. It's not magic."
Wieckowski said regulators have set the price of carbon too low and allowed emitters to hoard credits, essentially "banking" future pollution. He also criticized the offset program, which includes forests that have since burned down in wildfires. While Wieckowski thinks a carbon tax may be a better approach, he would like to see stronger "guardrails" on cap-and-trade such as higher minimum prices at credit auctions and an elimination of offsets.
Garcia offered similar criticisms, saying it's far too easy for the worst polluters to pay their way out of meaningful change.
"We sold this to people with the co-benefit of clean air, but we haven't seen that co-benefit, " said Garcia, who lives in Bell Gardens, southeast of Los Angeles.
"We're still polluting in communities like mine, " she said. "It lets people keep polluting and offset it somewhere else. That's just trickle-down environmentalism. We've given cap-and-trade a chance for a while now, and maybe we can't fix it. Maybe it's time to walk away and try something different."
In a letter to Wieckowski earlier this year, California Secretary for Environmental Protection Jared Blumenfeld said he was working to reevaluate the extent to which the state's climate strategy should rely on cap-and-trade, as well as considering changes to the program to address emissions projections.
Rajinder Sahota, who oversees California's cap-and-trade program as an assistant division chief with the Air Resources Board, said many of the criticisms of the program are unfair.
She said cap-and-trade has played a key role in driving down power sector emissions. When California utilities need to purchase out-of-state power, the price on carbon makes it cheaper to buy renewable electricity, hun sagde.
The program also has "constrained emissions" from growing further and will reduce allowances and offsets over the coming years, according to Sahota.
"The program is doubling in stringency over the next decade, " she said. "It looks nothing like it will look like over the next decade."
I mellemtiden, Sahota said, toxic pollutants, unlike greenhouse gases, have until recently been under the jurisdiction of local air districts. The state agency gained authority to regulate those pollutants in 2017, and it's still evaluating where the worst impacts are being felt.
The greenhouse gas regulations in cap-and-trade should not be tied in with air quality issues, Sahota said.
"There is no definitive correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and [hazardous pollutants] in a facility, " she said. "To say that reducing one automatically reduces the other is not reality."
California has also sought to invest much of the revenue brought in from cap-and-trade into communities most affected by environmental issues, Sahota said.
Other leaders also still see a role for cap-and-trade. A coalition of Northeast states is using a cap-and-trade plan to regulate power plant emissions, a program known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, or RGGI. Proponents say RGGI states have nearly halved their power sector emissions in a decade while generating billions in economic activity from the carbon payments.
But it's unclear if RGGI played a significant role in reducing emissions, as the replacement of coal plants with natural gas—a transition that has happened nationwide—seems to have driven much of the shift. Many of the states in the coalition are looking at a separate cap-and-trade program for transportation emissions, which would target fuel suppliers. Tidligere på ugen Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and the District of Columbia were the first to commit to the transportation sector cap-and-trade plan.
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, en demokrat, is seeking to join the RGGI coalition and has directed the state to participate in the transportation program as well. The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) noted that cap-and-trade will not solve the climate crisis on its own, touting its enforcement of other air pollution regulations.
"Cap-and-trade programs have shown that they do play a useful and cost-effective role in reducing carbon and other types of pollution, " said Jamar Thrasher, an agency spokesperson, in an email to Stateline. "DEP is keenly conscious of the need to prioritize communities near those pollution sources."
I mellemtiden, Oregon Democrats have made attempts in the past two sessions to pass a statewide cap-and-trade bill. The plan would make Oregon the second state in the nation with such a program. Each time, selvom, they've been thwarted as Republicans have fled the statehouse to block a vote from occurring.
After failing to increase their margins in the 2020 election, Oregon leaders say they're unlikely to revisit the issue next year.
New Mexico's Climate Change Task Force, a group appointed by Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, is currently evaluating market-based climate programs, such as cap-and-trade.
Maddy Hayden, a public information officer with the New Mexico Environment Department, said cap-and-trade can be effective at reducing pollution and boosting health outcomes. New Mexico is interested in working with other states or existing programs, tilføjede hun.
2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts.
Distribueret af Tribune Content Agency, LLC.