Stigende farvande truer Great Lakes -samfund

Langs en kystlinje, der strækker sig længere end den kombinerede længde af Atlanterhavs- og Stillehavskysten, farvande drevet af klimaændringer er steget så meget som 6 fod på mindre end et årti, vaske huse væk, ødelægger veje og truer kritisk infrastruktur såsom vandbehandlingsanlæg i store og små byer.

Den igangværende katastrofe, der rammer kystsamfundene ved De Store Søer, har ikke fanget national opmærksomhed som orkaner og skovbrande i andre dele af landet. Men fra Duluth til Chicago til Cleveland til Buffalo, ledere trækker sig tilbage fra uanede milliarder i skade – og udsigten til, at klimaforandringerne vil gøre tingene værre i de kommende år.

I de otte stater ved de store søer, embedsmænd på alle niveauer langs 4, 500 miles kystlinje kæmper for at redde, hvad de kan fra det stigende vand, konkurrerer om knappe statslige og føderale dollars og gummistemplede tilladelser til at bygge private strandvolde i et hidtil uset tempo.

Forskere siger den eneste langsigtede løsning, da klimaforandringer forårsager erosion og højere højder - og lavere nedture - i søniveauer, er at trække sig tilbage fra kysten. Men få i regionen er villige til at føre den samtale.

"Folk leder altid efter en teknisk løsning, så de ikke behøver at ændre den måde, de opfører sig på, "sagde Paul Roebber, en atmosfærisk videnskabsforsker ved University of Wisconsin i Milwaukee.

Der er ingen lette svar. Fællesskaber har ikke penge til at købe ejendomme, der er truet af søerne - især når de forsøger at redde deres egen infrastruktur - og der er lidt appetit på at bruge offentlige penge til at hjælpe private grundejere. Men uden en regeringsstøttet plan om at trække sig tilbage fra den eroderende kyst, ejendomsejere har en juridisk ret til at forsvare deres hjem og fortsætte med at bevæbne kystlinjen.

"Den bedste løsning er at begynde at planlægge fremad og dybest set give kystlinjeejere besked, " sagde Dick Norton, professor i by- og regionalplanlægning ved University of Michigan. "'Du har bygget et sted, der naturligt giver i søen. Der vil komme en tid, hvor du skal samle din struktur op og flytte den tilbage.' Det er let at tale om i teorien, men det er virkelig svært at gøre i praksis."

Op og ned

Vandstanden i de store søer har altid svinget, stigende og faldende i årelange mønstre. Men disse komplekse naturlige cyklusser ændrer sig. I løbet af de seneste fem år, regionen har set enorme mængder nedbør. Selv før den stigning, bassinet havde en stigning på 10% i nedbør siden 1900.

Men opvarmningstemperaturer - og svindende isdække i løbet af vinteren - kan også fremskynde og forlænge fordampningscyklusser. Med andre ord, klimaændringer skruer op for de faktorer, der både øger og sænker vandstanden, hvilket gør kystlinjen meget mere flygtig, da titusinder af billioner galloner kommer og går.

Da de store søer nåede rekordlåg i 2013, mange troede, at den udtømte søbredde ville være den nye normal. Nu, med huse, der vakler og veje oversvømmet, de venter på den dag, vandet aftager igen.

"Vi begynder at erkende, at hvis vi kan gå fra rekordlav til rekordhøj om seks eller syv år, vi skal justere vores tankegang, "sagde Deanna Apps, en videnskabsmand fra Detroit District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Hænger på

Mens klimaeksperter arbejder på at forstå de langsigtede konsekvenser af de stadig mere flygtige Great Lakes, de fleste kystsamfund forsøger bare at komme igennem året.

Vandbehandlingsanlægget i Ludington, Michigan, en gang 100 fod fra kystlinjen, er nu kun 8 fod fra de brydende bølger i Lake Michigan. Hvis planten er oversvømmet, byen ville miste sin vandforsyning. Byen skal også reparere et vejkryds, der er oversvømmet så ofte, at det har været lukket i et år, og der er flere private ejendomme, der er truet.

"Det ville være en tredjedel af vores samlede budget for året bare for at håndtere de problemer, vi kender til lige nu, " sagde bychef Mitch Foster. "Det er ikke realistisk. Vi antager det værste, at disse (vand) cyklusser bliver korte, aggressiv og ekstrem, men på samme tid er disse umiddelbare problemer så massive, at det er en hård opgave at prøve at finde ud af de tilhørende konsekvenser."

To timer syd for Ludington, South Haven ser på en pris på 20 millioner dollars for at redde sine spildevands- og vandfiltreringsanlæg, en afgørende vindebro, en flodbro og byens lystbådehavn. Med et årligt budget på $48 mio. det er uklart, hvordan byen vil finde penge til at udføre reparationerne.

"Der er ingen god plan, "sagde Kate Hosier, bychef. "Planen er at se, hvad vi kan rette i øjeblikket og håndtere det, hvis pengene er der."

Sheboygan, Wisconsin, kigger på omkostninger på mere end 30 millioner dollars til at erstatte vandindtag og kloakledninger nær Lake Michigan. Lake County, Ohio, har brug for $ 20 millioner til $ 30 millioner i erosionskontrolarbejde på offentlige og private arealer langs Erie -søen. Duluth, Minnesota, har set 26 millioner dollars i skade, da storme på Lake Superior har ramt byens signatur 8-mile søvandring og vandrensningsanlæg.

"Det er svært for mig at levere alle de essentielle bytjenester og også flytte nålen på en virkelig dyr virksomhed som klimaændringer, " sagde Duluth-borgmester Emily Larson, en demokrat. "Så mange lokalsamfund sidder fast på band-aiding og gør deres bedste, fordi ingen har dækket bordet til at tale ærligt om det. "

Faktisk, ingen har engang en boldgade for de igangværende højvandsskader overalt i De Store Søer. På tværs af stats- og byjurisdiktioner, ledere kæmper med deres egne problemer, så godt de kan. Men ingen har endnu indkaldt alle parter for at få et samlet overblik over skadens omfang - endsige antallet af veje, vand planter, huse og parker, der kunne være i fare i de kommende årtier. En føderal undersøgelse, der skulle give den vurdering, er gået i stå i flere år på grund af mangel på finansiering.

"Det er her, regeringslagene svigter os, "sagde Dan Gilmartin, administrerende direktør for Michigan Municipal League, en nonprofit sammenslutning af lokalsamfund og deres ledere. "Vi har brug for et større fokus på dette, som typisk er kommet fra FB og ofte gennem staterne."

Gilmartins gruppe undersøgte tre dusin samfund i Michigan og fandt $ 70 millioner i nødvendige reparationer. The Great Lakes og St. Lawrence Cities Initiative, en koalition af 131 borgmestre i regionen, har trukket sit eget skøn over omkostninger til lokale regeringer i USA og Canada sammen. Gruppen siger, at dens medlemmer bruger mere end 450 millioner dollars på kortsigtede rettelser, med yderligere $865 millioner, der er nødvendige for fremtidig planlægning og afbødning.

Disse tal inkluderer ikke omkostninger på staten, føderal og privat jord, som udgør det meste af søbredden. Der findes færre skøn for skaden på tværs af disse lande, men de fleste er enige om, at det er langt oppe i milliarder af dollars.

National Park Service-steder langs søerne har set campingpladser, dokker og parkeringspladser neddykket. Statsveje og parker har lidt omfattende skader. Og tusindvis af husejere på strande og skrænter ser vandet komme tættere og tættere på deres veranda.

I en undersøgelse offentliggjort i 2000, længe før de seneste års flygtige søniveauer, Federal Emergency Management Agency fandt, at 16, 000 strukturer langs De Store Søer ville være modtagelige for erosion i 2060.

"Der synes ikke at være en sammenhængende samtale om dette, " sagde Foster, bychefen i Ludington. "Det er for meget af en patchwork -tilgang."

Ikke nok penge

Vandstanden på de store søer er begyndt at falde så let, som de typisk gør om efteråret, selvom erosion sandsynligvis vil fortsætte, efterhånden som vinterstorme banker på søbredden. Mens ledere og beboere hænger ved deres negle, ingen har en klar idé om omfanget af skaden, endsige hvor pengene skal komme fra for at ordne det. Cities say they're trying to cobble together state and federal funding where they can, but not nearly enough is available.

"It is exhausting to take what is a known need and try to patch it together with every single funding opportunity, sagde Larson, the Duluth mayor. "So much human capital is being spent on a patchwork approach to something that is imminently dangerous. We need something that is more consistent."

The COVID-19 pandemic has slashed city and state revenue, making the necessary investments even less likely.

"Some communities are going to be pulling back on investing in projects that were on the books because they have to fund their operating expenses, " said Mike Vandersteen, the Republican mayor of Sheboygan, Wisconsin, and chair of the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative.

Several leaders complained that the Federal Emergency Management Agency hands out huge sums of money to help communities rebuild from disasters but does not provide the same funding to prevent imminent destruction from happening.

"We need the relief to come before the treatment plant is overwhelmed and leaks into the water or the road floods and cuts off emergency access, " said John LaMacchia, assistant director of state and federal affairs for the Michigan Municipal League.

Ronda Wuycheck, coastal program manager at the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy, said the state has not been able to access FEMA funding for high-water damage, unlike the states hit by Superstorm Sandy in 2012. She said the federal government should make money for flood-damage work available through the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, a $300 million annual fund that has traditionally focused on cleaning up pollutants and curtailing invasive species.

Armoring The Shore

While cities say they're not getting the help they need, some states have at least taken steps to help homeowners. In Michigan, where 80% of the shoreline is privately owned, state and federal regulators have seen a surge in shoreline protection permits from residents who want to build seawalls.

Through the third quarter of 2020, nearly 1, 800 applications had been submitted. That's quadruple the amount for the same period of 2019, when the lakes were already hitting record levels. The permits must be approved by both the state and feds, who have worked to cut the turnaround time from 60 days to 10.

"We're just barely keeping our head above water, " said Don Reinke, who heads compliance and enforcement with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Detroit District.

Ohio has a similar percentage of private shoreline along Lake Erie. Amid a dramatic increase in calls for help, the state has cut its permitting process for shoreline protection from three to five months to about a week.

But experts say the rush to armor the shoreline is exactly the wrong approach. Seawalls perpendicular to the shoreline trap sand and compound the erosion problem elsewhere. Those parallel to the shore can multiply the force of the waves, causing the same problem. Med andre ord, efforts to stop erosion simply redirect erosion elsewhere, creating a need for even more armor.

"The more protection you put in, the less sand is available to the system, " said Scudder Mackey, chief of Ohio's Office of Coastal Management. "You're cutting off the sediment supply that creates and maintains the beaches. We're in a vicious cycle."

Regulators know these structures are making the problem worse, but they have little choice but to rubber-stamp an application when a home is threatened.

"Because a landowner has the general right to protect property from erosion, applications get favorable consideration, " Reinke said. "Our regulations pretty much instruct us not to tell people, 'Sorry, you have to pick up and move your house.'"

Breaking The Cycle

Experts say the biggest disaster in the long run may be the human "fixes" being installed today, rather than the high water itself.

"Putting in structures like seawalls and revetments (retaining walls) is not a permanent solution, because the lakes will keep pounding on them and taking them out, " said Norton, the University of Michigan professor. "You're buying in for a lot of ongoing cost, and there's no engineered solution that works without destroying the beach."

Shoreline protection structures can cost $1, 000 to $4, 000 per foot, and their lifespan is typically 25-30 years - assuming conditions don't change. Leaders acknowledge they're on an unsustainable course, but as they work to save properties in the near term, no level of government has taken responsibility to blaze the path out of the armoring cycle.

Norton noted that many lakefront properties are owned by wealthy and politically connected residents, who are important to a city's property tax base. That makes it difficult for small, cash-strapped towns to make unpopular decisions on whether such development is sustainable. He added that there's little appetite to work on solutions when lake levels go down and the threat is less imminent.

Only a few cities in the basin have limited development along the shoreline. En af dem, St. Joseph, Michigan, has blocked new construction within 200 feet of Lake Michigan along part of its shoreline. The ordinance passed during a low-water period in 2012, after one home was built on the edge of the lake. Neighbors complained that a proposed seawall to protect the home would cause erosion on their properties, and many were relieved to see the city put a stop to such unsustainable development. Stadig, some raised objections that the change infringed on the rights of property owners to build on their own land.

In some parts of Michigan, the state says there's irrefutable data that the lakeshore is moving inland. And while it's providing guidance to communities about the unsustainable course they're on, the state maintains it's the responsibility of each city to set its own development rules.

"We are looking at a potential of higher highs than we've known in the past, " Wuycheck said. "We are trying to tell communities they need to take these scenarios into account when they make (development) decisions. (But) local government is where we believe wise management should happen."

Local governments say they're looking at changing their guidelines, but given their limited expertise and resources, they need states to play a bigger role.

"Zoning can be strengthened, but zoning is frequently challenged by developers, " said Hosier, the South Haven city manager. "If there was a more solidified message from (the state), that would help."

There's even less political will to address existing properties in the path of the advancing shoreline. Duluth's Park Point neighborhood is among those threatened by the high waters, but Larson said residents are not yet ready to discuss retreating from the area - nor does the city have the money to buy out 3, 000 boliger. But the alternatives aren't much better.

"What's hard about climate change is the anticipation of what comes next, " Larson said. "There is no amount of system we can put in place that feels like it will eventually be enough. I cannot bully Mother Nature into behaving."

Many other Great Lakes leaders offered similar thoughts, saying a buyout plan would be political suicide, as well as a futile effort without the money to back it up. Stadig, experts say the least costly long-term solution - for both the landscape and local budgets - is to retreat and allow a "living shoreline" that fluctuates with the lakes.

"What's the plan for a resilient shoreline, not one that can resist the damage but one that lives with the lakes?" said Joel Brammeier, president and CEO of the Alliance for the Great Lakes, a Chicago-based nonprofit that works to protect the lakes. "That's the elusive goal that not a lot of people are talking about, because it leads to uncomfortable places. The alternative is walling up the sides of the lake. That's not workable and it's not healthy for the Great Lakes."

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