Hvordan udenlandske køb af amerikanske boliger påvirker priser og udbud

Boligmarkeder er foretrukne destinationer for udenlandske investorer, der leder efter afkast, sommerhuse eller sikre havn, eller for dem, der undviger skattebegrænsninger og korruption i deres hjemlande. Men efterspørgsel efter amerikanske boliger fra udenlandske investorer, især kinesisk, presser boligpriserne op, forværre bekymringer om boligoverkommelighed, ifølge ny forskning fra Wharton.

Huspriserne voksede 8 procentpoint mere i amerikanske postnumre med høje udenlandskfødte kinesiske befolkninger fra 2012 til 2018, ifølge et papir med titlen "Global Capital and Local Assets:House Prices, Mængder, og elasticiteter, "forfattet af Wharton doktorand Caitlin Gorback og Wharton ejendomsprofessor Benjamin Keys.

"Det store billede er, at vi har en økonomisk overkommelighedskrise for boliger i de byer, hvor arbejdspladserne er, " sagde Keys. "En af de reelle spændinger på det amerikanske boligmarked er, at de steder, der oplever kraftig jobvækst, ikke skaber nye boliger hurtigt nok til at imødekomme den jobvækst."

Det skarpeste eksempel på afbrydelser mellem jobvækst og boliger er San Francisco Bay Area og specifikt San Mateo County, sagde Keys. Siden 2012 har denne region har haft omkring 30 % stigning i beskæftigelsen, men mindre end en stigning på 10 % i boligenheder, han tilføjede.

Keys beskyldte disse boligmangel på zoneinddelingsrestriktioner, der afskrækker nybyggeri, og stigende byggeomkostninger. "Der er omkring seks gange så mange nye job, som der er nye boligtilladelser, " sagde han. "Der er mange bøjler at springe igennem for at få bygget noget på disse steder, især at bygge på en måde, der er tæt."

Udlændinge, der køber amerikanske boliger, forværrer potentielt dette problem med overkommelighed, Nøgler fortsatte. Kinesiske købere har ledet udenlandske investeringer i amerikanske boliger i de sidste syv år. I 2019-2020, de købte amerikanske boligejendomme til en værdi af 11,5 milliarder dollars, eller lidt mere end en sjettedel af det samlede antal, ifølge en rapport fra National Association of Realtors (NAR). Andre investorer i top fem kom fra Canada, Mexico, Indien og Colombia, i den rækkefølge. (Colombia erstattede sidste år U.K. som det femtestørste oprindelsesland for udenlandske købere). Køb af udenlandske købere udgjorde 4 % af salget af eksisterende boliger på 1,7 billioner USD sidste år, NAR-rapporten bemærkede.

Undersøgelsen fra Gorback og Keys viser også, at huspriser og huslejer er steget steder, hvor der har været store doser af udenlandske investeringer. "Det er i høj grad, fordi de steder, hvor du ser udenlandske købere, er de samme steder, som har mere dynamiske økonomier og har flere job."

Omkring halvdelen af ​​de boliger, som udlændinge køber, bruges som primære boliger; de andre tjener som feriehuse, fritidshjem eller en pied-a-terre, de besøger af og til, sagde Keys. "For eksempel, En stor del af de canadiske investeringer i amerikanske boliger kommer fra snefugle, der køber huse i Florida."

Rækkevidden af ​​et 'efterspørgselschok'

Brug af udenlandske investeringer som et "efterspørgselschok, " Avisen ser også på, hvor lydhør boligudvikling er over for ændringer i pris. "Hvis priserne stiger på et marked, ansporer det til konstruktion? Fører det til skovle i jorden?" spurgte Keys. Forskellige markeder reagerer forskelligt på disse triggere, og meget afhænger af tilgængeligheden af ​​alternative steder i nærheden, bemærkede han.

Undersøgelsen viste, at boligmarkederne er relativt uelastiske over for prisændringer på kort sigt på omkring 10 år. "Boligpriserne kan bevæge sig meget hurtigere, end boligbyggeriet kan, " sagde Keys. Han tilføjede, at "kystmarkeder og markeder, der har haft historisk strammere zonekrav, ser ud til at være mere uelastiske i denne periode, " og tilføjer, at dette fund er i overensstemmelse med tidligere forskning.

Keys bemærkede, at deres forskning giver "et nyt empirisk estimat af disse elasticiteter, der ikke er blevet estimeret ved hjælp af denne tilgang eller over denne tidsperiode." Det gør det muligt "at sammenligne og kontrastere og forhåbentlig at kalibrere byøkonomiske modeller relateret til, hvor lydhøre vi ville forvente, at boligmarkederne er over for forskellige typer stød, " han tilføjede.

Udenlandske investeringers "efterspørgselschok" udløser også ringvirkninger på boligmarkederne, undersøgelsen fandt, citerer Seattle som et eksempel. "I tilfældet Seattle, når du borer ned geografisk, du ser dette mønster af differentieret boligprisvækst, ikke kun i de høje udenlandskfødte kvarterer, men i de kvarterer, der grænser op til disse kvarterer, " sagde Keys.

Seattle-eksemplet er en del af undersøgelsens beregning af, hvilken indflydelse udenlandske kapitalstrømme har på huspriser og udbud til de største 100 markeder i USA. Den fandt, at lokale boligmarkeder er prisuelastiske på kort sigt, but that is heterogeneous (or varies) across markets. Seattle displayed "a spillover effect" where investment in foreign-born Chinese neighborhoods pushes up housing prices in the nearby neighborhoods as well, Keys continued. Seattle also absorbs some of the demand redirected from Canada, where cities like Vancouver deter foreign ownership of homes through taxes, including on ownership of vacant homes, han tilføjede.

Redirected Foreign Demand, Volatility

The U.S. housing market is also particularly sensitive to tax restraints many countries impose on foreigners buying residential properties in their jurisdictions, the paper found. Some of the investors turned away from those countries head to the U.S., which does not have those tax restraints.

Chinese investments in U.S. housing reflect in part a flight of capital from China in recent years, said Keys. "A big part of that was about wealthier Chinese citizens moving their money abroad to avoid taxes and to avoid scrutiny, " he added. In fact, China in 2016 experienced "the greatest episode of capital flight in history, " according to a Wall Street Journal report at the time.

As those investors turned their attention to the U.S., its housing markets turned out to be more sensitive than previously thought, said Keys. "One surprising finding in our study is how responsive foreign investment is to tax policies imposed abroad, " he added. "The takeaway for us is that these policies that are being imposed in countries like Singapore, Australia, Canada and New Zealand have a direct effect on the U.S. housing market."

Several countries consciously regulate foreign investments in residential properties, recognizing the undesirable effects some of that could have, especially with speculation. The paper documents 10 policy events in five countries between 2011 and 2018 that made the U.S. housing market "relatively cheaper to invest in." The governments in those countries used tax policy to deter foreigners from buying housing properties and to curb speculation.

Singapore was the first to introduce a foreign buyer tax in 2011 in the form of a stamp duty; it progressively increased that to 20% by July 2018. Hong Kong levies stamp duties of 30% on nonresident home buyers, which includes a duty on those who are not first-time buyers, including residents.

Others that levy taxes on foreign buyers of residential properties include the governments of British Columbia and Ontario in Canada; Victoria in Australia; and New Zealand. British Columbia also levied a speculation and vacancy tax in certain communities. Many countries impose such "foreign real estate buyer taxes" in order to deter foreign capital inflows and stabilize housing prices in their markets, the paper's authors noted.

While foreign investments have lifted home prices in select U.S. markets, they have declined in the last three years. Foreign inflows had been steadily increasing from $66 billion in 2009-2010 to $153 billion in 2016-2017, but have since dropped to $74 billion last year (2019-2020), according to the NAR report cited earlier.

Chinese investments in U.S. housing have followed that pattern, falling from nearly $32 billion in 2016-2017 to $11.5 billion last year. Keys attributed that to China's capital controls in recent years and pressure on its citizens to unwind their investments abroad in order to shore up its domestic economy, as the Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S.-China trade war, U.S. controls on immigration and unfavorable exchange rates have also dampened Chinese investments in U.S. housing, bemærkede han.

What's Next for U.S. Housing?

Keys said his study is timely now because "there's a big question about how the housing market will come back after COVID-19." He noted that several housing submarkets in the U.S. have seen "huge inflows of foreign investment" over the last 10 years. "If that dries up, it would represent an opportunity for domestic buyers and put downward pressure on prices, but that may be a bad thing for existing home owners."

If the pandemic persists, foreign investments in U.S. homes would continue their decline, and cause home prices to fall, Keys predicted. In that setting, "clearly, there would be an advantage for domestic homebuyers, " said Keys. "[Also], a decline in foreign investment may relax some of the affordability constraints to a modest degree in cities where the jobs are more plentiful than the housing in them."

Some of the space vacated by Chinese and Canadian investors could be filled by those from Mexico, India and Colombia, which have shown rising appetites for U.S. homes. But such demand is "highly dependent" on U.S. federal policies, said Keys. U.S. policies on combating COVID-19 is the first factor, han tilføjede. "Relative to the alternative markets where foreign buyers may be considering, we as a country have done the worst job managing the COVID crisis. Investors who are deliberating between the other megacities of the world and are concerned about public health will steer their investments away from the U.S. at the moment."

The outcome of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election could change some of those stakes. "I øjeblikket, it feels like a difficult time for immigrants to feel welcome in this country, given the set of federal policies in place and the barriers to immigrate, " said Keys. "So, a change in administration that is attached to a change in those policies could certainly reinvigorate investment in the U.S. housing market."

Policy Prescriptions

Could the U.S. do something to protect its housing markets from unfavorable foreign investment? Policy makers could weigh the speed and magnitude at which foreign capital flows would decline, if the U.S. were to impose "a large foreign buyer tax" to deter foreign investments in housing, said Keys. Such investments "appear to be quite elastic" to the imposition of a foreign-buyer tax, han tilføjede.

"My concern is largely one of unused housing units, especially in expensive areas, " said Keys. A vacancy tax similar to that in Vancouver is "worth considering, " he added. "One of the things that rapid flows of investment could do is they can distort construction efforts and put additional resources towards building properties that foreign investors may want only in the short term, but then that housing stock will last a very long time."

Keys also urged state and local governments to re-examine zoning and height restrictions, and the time delays that permitting for new construction entails. "The number of hurdles to jump through makes it so challenging to develop affordable housing in the U.S., " he added. Some states like California have already begun taking legislative action to push local communities to change their zoning rules, bemærkede han.