Eksperter måler de økonomiske konsekvenser af COVID-19-pandemien

Mellem 21. og 28. marts da landet vedtog karantæneforanstaltninger, USA oplevede en 3, 000 % stigning i arbejdsløshedsansøgninger. Ved udgangen af ​​marts, et aktiemarkedsfald havde udslettet alle gevinster fra de foregående tre år.

I måneder, restauranter med skodder, butiksfacader og kontorer punkterede billeder af tomme gader i New York City, Los Angeles og Venedig, Italien. Følgerne af COVID-19 på økonomier rundt om i verden bliver mere og mere tydelige, og mærkes visceralt af de millioner, der forbliver arbejdsløse, eller hvis virksomheder vipper på randen af ​​konkurs.

Selvom den amerikanske økonomi har tilføjet nogle tilbage job siden det oprindelige lavpunkt, Hawaii står over for arbejdsløshed på niveau med den store depression, og i Kentucky venter folk i kø i otte timer for at tale med en person på arbejdsløshedskontoret.

Økonomer var for nylig samlet til en onlinekonference arrangeret af USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences' Økonomisk Institut for at diskutere de økonomiske konsekvenser af COVID-19, og hvordan man bedst undgår en alvorlig verdensomspændende recession.

At lukke alt undtagen de mest vitale operationer var nøglen til at undgå masseinfektioner og død, men det er en risikabel strategi. "Du sætter økonomien i induceret koma, at reducere betændelse, " sagde Romain Ranciere, professor i økonomi, finans og erhvervsøkonomi på USC Dornsife. "Men hvor hurtigt vil bedring ske? Det er spørgsmålet."

Jorden rundt på 180 dage

Infektionsraten er faldet i nogle af de hårdest ramte lande, som Italien og Spanien. Kina genåbnede Wuhan-provinsen, tidligere virussens epicenter. Forår og sommer bragte øgede temperaturer til den nordlige halvkugle, hvilket lover godt for dem, der i øjeblikket er i spidsen af ​​det - tidlig forskning viser, at virussen ikke kan lide varme, fugtige omgivelser.

Men mens de nordlige lande soler sig i solrige dage, den sydlige halvkugle kaster sig ud i vinter. Dette kan betyde en betydelig stigning i infektionsraten under ækvator, efterhånden som betingelserne for, at virussen forbedres og koldere temperaturer sender folk ind i lukkede rum sammen.

"Der er en tilbageslagseffekt mellem de to halvkugler, " sagde Ranciere. Denne rebound kunne betyde, at ligesom den nordlige halvkugle føler sig sikker ved at komme ud af karantæne, virussen kommer brølende tilbage efter at have overvintret sydpå. Lige indeslutningsforanstaltninger på begge sider af ækvator er afgørende.

Imidlertid, mange af verdens vækstøkonomier bor på den sydlige halvkugle, hvilket komplicerer problemet med sæsonbetinget opsving. "Strategien for avancerede økonomier er stort set uden for rækkevidde for vækstøkonomier, " sagde Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, professor i økonomi ved University of California, Berkeley.

Udviklingslandene mangler de økonomiske ressourcer til at betale borgere for at blive hjemme fra arbejde. Reduktion af infektionshastigheden, eller "udfladning af kurven, " bliver en stor udfordring, når arbejdere skal forlade huset for at brødføde deres familier. Dårlig sundhedsinfrastruktur og begrænset adgang til rent vand og sæbe til grundlæggende hygiejne øger sandsynligheden for overførsel. Økonomier, der er afhængige af at levere varer til rigere nationer, kæmper med suspension af handel, yderligere tømning af statskassen.

Velhavende nationer kan være optaget af deres egne pandemiske problemer, men de bør ikke ignorere vækstøkonomier, sagde Gourinchas. At yde finansiel støtte, så alle lande kan vedtage strategier såsom ly på plads, vil både knuse virussen på verdensplan og sætte skub i alles økonomiske genopretning.

"Opsving fra pandemien, og recessionen, vil være hurtigere, hvis det er globalt, " argumenterede han.

Selvfølgelig, efterhånden som den økonomiske belastning og sundhedsomkostningerne skyder i vejret, even established economies may struggle to help anyone but themselves. This is true in some wealthier countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, who seem unable to reverse the upward trend in infection rates.

Chain reactions

Established economies are also grappling with supply chain disruptions. The U.S. imports 90% of generic medications from India and China. Lockdowns in these countries threaten U.S. supplies as factory workers stay home and production stops.

Derudover some nations banned the export of certain medications outside the country, which could have led to drug shortages in countries that rely on these manufacturers. India restricted export of 26 medications, including acetaminophen, a commonly used pain reliever. In part this was due to their own reliance on China for the raw materials to manufacture these drugs. With Chinese manufacturing running at reduced capacity, resources for drug production are in short supply.

India eventually reversed the medication export ban, but items like N95 masks, which are also overwhelmingly produced abroad, remain exceedingly difficult to procure.

"All this reveals that global chains are much more sensitive and fragile than we thought, " Rainciere said.

Our food supply chains also face obstacles, particularly in California. Much of the produce grown in the state requires hands-on harvesting, including grapes, lettuce, and strawberries, unlike grain production in Midwestern states, which can use unmanned machinery.

Harvesters are grappling with a backlog of unprocessed agricultural H-2A visas, which many foreign fieldworkers must obtain to work in the state. The pandemic and recent federal policies have essentially shut down visa processing.

Without stringent precautions, COVID-19 can spread rapidly among workers, who are often housed in rooms with up to 24 people, worsening the worker shortage and leaving produce to rot in the field, causing California's economy to sag.

Who's footing the bill?

The U.S. House recently approved America's newest COVID-19 relief bill—a staggering $3 trillion in assistance to citizens and businesses beyond the first infusion of $2 trillion in March. Other countries passed similar packages.

Each bill differs in the focus of its relief, says Ricardo Reis, professor of economics at the London School of Economics. "There is a mix between helping vulnerable individuals vs. helping businesses. European packages are very focused on 'going concern' with businesses. The U.S. package is very much driven toward social insurance, which makes sense because there are holes in the safety nets here."

Regardless of where the relief is headed, these sorts of eye-popping sums raise the questions of who pays for it all.

Some countries have adopted a strategy of "partial employment." Under this plan, employers retain their workers and pay a portion of their employee's salary while the government pitches in the rest. In Germany, 60% of a worker's wage is guaranteed if the employer pays a stipend, and in Denmark, 90% is guaranteed. Employers won't need to worry about recruiting and training new workers once the pandemic eases, which makes economic recovery swifter, and the government receives a helping hand in supporting citizens monetarily.

Increased taxation will likely play a role, particularly when it comes to health care costs. "When you look at health systems, you will see higher pressure for taxation to cover this, " said Ranciere.

Most advanced economies already provide taxpayer funded universal health care. In the U.S., where insurance is mostly tied to employment, millions have suddenly found themselves without coverage and unable to afford private insurance rates. Support for a taxpayer funded universal health care system that doesn't rely on employment for access appears to be rising among Americans during this crisis.

"The question of whether health is a public good or a private good is being reconsidered. We're learning that health is a public good—if you don't insure everyone, they will infect other people, " Ranciere said.

Opening the gates

As the country begins to emerge from lockdown, the most pressing concern is how to allow people to return to work to avoid serious economic damage, but without worsening the pandemic. Until a vaccine emerges, the virus will likely continue to spread unless social distancing is maintained. Even then, COVID-19 could mutate and reemerge seasonally like influenza.

Countries that enact strong social safety nets that help people stay housed and fed during this time can avoid many of the health ramifications that occur during traditional economic downtowns, which leave people destitute and unmoored.

Allowing those without the virus to leave confinement while those infected, and the immune compromised, remain at home may be our best bet at allowing the economy to safely and effectively rev up again. In the U.S., this would require a significant increase in testing and contact tracing. Desværre, the country still faces a shortage of tests months after the outbreak began. This may mean getting creative.

Ranciere described a wartime strategy for avoiding the spread of STIs that could help. Tasked with testing WWII U.S. Army recruits for syphilis but stymied by the cost of individual blood tests, Robert Dorfman at Harvard University devised a method for group testing instead. Drawing blood from 10 recruits, the samples were mixed and then tested as one. If no disease was present, the whole group could be released. As more folks form "quarantine bubbles" in the face of extended isolation, group testing could make increasing sense.

Similar testing strategies could help as citizens return to work—and keep the economy more productive while we await the arrival of that hallowed vaccine.